Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.032742 0.037330 0.042362 0.048294 0.055106 0.062688 0.071782
2025-01-05 0.024523 0.030456 0.037566 0.046736 0.058284 0.072388 0.090991
2025-01-12 0.020298 0.026693 0.034824 0.045966 0.060909 0.080356 0.107750
2025-01-19 0.016975 0.023371 0.031902 0.044180 0.061511 0.085269 0.120596
2025-01-26 0.015576 0.022331 0.031729 0.045859 0.066737 0.096720 0.143534
2025-02-02 0.014439 0.021462 0.031609 0.047472 0.071895 0.108478 0.168181
2025-02-09 0.013483 0.020710 0.031516 0.049025 0.077020 0.120608 0.194721
2025-02-16 0.012236 0.019356 0.030338 0.048715 0.079120 0.128160 0.214719
2025-02-23 0.011297 0.018371 0.029603 0.048980 0.082094 0.137313 0.238310
2025-03-02 0.010301 0.017184 0.028410 0.048330 0.083406 0.143744 0.257831
2025-03-09 0.009725 0.016630 0.028190 0.049274 0.087509 0.155318 0.287804
2025-03-16 0.008957 0.015669 0.027179 0.048711 0.088835 0.162037 0.309483
2025-03-23 0.008587 0.015387 0.027348 0.050332 0.094415 0.177297 0.349763
2025-03-30 0.007767 0.014219 0.025831 0.048691 0.093693 0.180640 0.366987
2025-04-06 0.007155 0.013376 0.024820 0.047888 0.094467 0.186889 0.390796
2025-04-13 0.006472 0.012335 0.023343 0.046023 0.092913 0.188290 0.404488
2025-04-20 0.006293 0.012245 0.023672 0.047776 0.098901 0.205733 0.455145
2025-04-27 0.006115 0.012141 0.023957 0.049460 0.104911 0.223862 0.509669
2025-05-04 0.005940 0.012025 0.024205 0.051082 0.110948 0.242694 0.568270
2025-05-11 0.005583 0.011502 0.023575 0.050758 0.112654 0.252082 0.605631
2025-05-18 0.005312 0.011135 0.023236 0.051035 0.115735 0.264914 0.653062
2025-05-25 0.004977 0.010604 0.022503 0.050356 0.116529 0.272487 0.688257
2025-06-01 0.004808 0.010419 0.022500 0.051342 0.121352 0.290185 0.751914